2026/2027 · matchweek 14 · provider tag opta
League Two xG form
Small sample. Six matches will swing on a penalty and a deflection. Read the order as a recent window, not as a ranking with any authority.
| # | Club | Pos | P | xGF | xGA | xGD | GF | GA | GF−xG | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Accrington Stanley | 9 | 6 | 9.50 | 3.59 | +5.91 | 12 | 3 | +2.50 | 1.88–0.51 | 1.29–0.69 |
| 2 | Chesterfield | 10 | 6 | 10.68 | 5.42 | +5.26 | 13 | 11 | +2.32 | 2.48–0.70 | 1.08–1.10 |
| 3 | Barnet | 2 | 6 | 12.32 | 8.09 | +4.23 | 11 | 8 | -1.32 | 2.41–1.41 | 1.69–1.29 |
| 4 | Grimsby TownFlag | 6 | 6 | 13.02 | 9.64 | +3.38 | 12 | 10 | -1.02 | 2.28–1.18 | 2.06–2.03 |
| 5 | Port ValeFlag | 19 | 6 | 8.98 | 5.66 | +3.32 | 7 | 7 | -1.98 | 2.27–0.62 | 0.73–1.27 |
| 6 | Salford CityFlag | 1 | 6 | 8.70 | 5.86 | +2.84 | 13 | 5 | +4.30 | 1.51–0.66 | 1.39–1.30 |
| 7 | Newport County | 14 | 6 | 9.05 | 6.91 | +2.14 | 8 | 5 | -1.05 | 1.36–1.16 | 1.66–1.14 |
| 8 | Exeter CityFlag | 12 | 6 | 7.44 | 5.62 | +1.82 | 7 | 3 | -0.44 | 1.71–0.80 | 0.77–1.08 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 16 | 6 | 10.31 | 8.54 | +1.77 | 9 | 9 | -1.31 | 2.21–0.79 | 1.23–2.06 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury Town | 15 | 6 | 9.92 | 8.61 | +1.31 | 10 | 9 | +0.08 | 1.55–1.26 | 1.76–1.61 |
| 11 | Crewe Alexandra | 4 | 6 | 7.22 | 6.53 | +0.69 | 9 | 11 | +1.78 | 1.34–0.69 | 1.07–1.48 |
| 12 | Oldham AthleticFlag | 18 | 6 | 8.84 | 8.94 | -0.10 | 6 | 6 | -2.84 | 1.33–1.25 | 1.62–1.73 |
| 13 | WalsallFlag | 3 | 6 | 11.46 | 11.97 | -0.51 | 11 | 8 | -0.46 | 2.33–1.96 | 1.70–2.02 |
| 14 | York City | 7 | 6 | 7.31 | 8.54 | -1.23 | 8 | 11 | +0.69 | 1.62–0.98 | 0.82–1.87 |
| 15 | Northampton Town | 21 | 6 | 7.37 | 9.17 | -1.80 | 6 | 4 | -1.37 | 1.24–0.88 | 1.22–2.17 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 8 | 6 | 7.72 | 9.55 | -1.83 | 9 | 10 | +1.28 | 1.10–1.60 | 1.47–1.58 |
| 17 | Colchester United | 23 | 6 | 7.54 | 9.60 | -2.06 | 4 | 9 | -3.54 | 1.75–1.75 | 1.01–1.53 |
| 18 | Swindon TownFlag | 13 | 6 | 7.53 | 10.82 | -3.29 | 6 | 5 | -1.53 | 1.20–1.30 | 1.31–2.31 |
| 19 | Tranmere Rovers | 11 | 6 | 6.17 | 9.85 | -3.68 | 9 | 9 | +2.83 | 1.27–1.33 | 0.79–1.95 |
| 20 | Cheltenham Town | 5 | 6 | 6.64 | 10.60 | -3.96 | 7 | 13 | +0.36 | 1.61–1.57 | 0.60–1.96 |
| 21 | Rotherham United | 22 | 6 | 6.67 | 10.81 | -4.14 | 7 | 14 | +0.33 | 1.53–1.96 | 0.69–1.64 |
| 22 | Bristol Rovers | 17 | 6 | 6.57 | 10.72 | -4.15 | 4 | 12 | -2.57 | 1.68–1.43 | 0.51–2.15 |
| 23 | Crawley Town | 24 | 6 | 8.01 | 12.92 | -4.91 | 7 | 10 | -1.01 | 1.40–1.71 | 1.27–2.60 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 20 | 6 | 6.52 | 12.88 | -6.36 | 8 | 15 | +1.48 | 1.25–2.05 | 0.92–2.24 |
Sorted by xG difference in this window. Pos is the season position on points, so a club can lead this list and sit mid-table. Home and away are xG for and against per match. GF−xG is goals minus xG: a positive number is more goals than the shots were worth. xG is an input, not a claim about who should have won.
Regression flags
- Salford City
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.9 ahead of xG across 14 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- Walsall
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 8.6 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Grimsby Town
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.1 behind xG across 14 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
- Exeter City
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.2 below xG against across 14 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Swindon Town
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.3 below xG against across 14 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Oldham Athletic
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.3 behind xG across 14 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
- Port Vale
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.0 behind xG across 12 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
A flag needs eight matches, a gap of at least six goals, and at least 0.40 of a goal per match. It is a marker for Chapter 20’s regression question. It is not a selection.
Home advantage, this season
Home sides in the League Two are averaging 1.60 xG. Away sides are averaging 1.22. That gap is this season’s home advantage, estimated from the shots, not a constant carried over from a textbook.
Fair prices from xG
The next eight days, priced from season home and away xG with a four-match shrinkage towards the league average. These are the model’s probabilities and the fair fractional odds that fall out of them. The margin is already off. They are not a bookmaker’s price, and they are not a suggestion to bet. Plain Poisson, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied.
Sat 14 Nov, 12:30
Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
λ 1.57 · μ 0.90 · over 2.5 45.0% (11/9) · BTTS 47.1% (9/8)
Home
53.1%
15/17 (1.88)
Draw
25.3%
62/21 (3.95)
Away
21.6%
40/11 (4.64)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield
λ 1.67 · μ 1.32 · over 2.5 57.5% (17/23) · BTTS 59.6% (15/22)
Home
45.5%
6/5 (2.20)
Draw
23.9%
54/17 (4.18)
Away
30.5%
41/18 (3.28)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Colchester United v Gillingham
λ 1.54 · μ 1.14 · over 2.5 50.2% (1/1) · BTTS 53.5% (20/23)
Home
46.3%
22/19 (2.16)
Draw
25.3%
53/18 (3.94)
Away
28.3%
43/17 (3.53)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Crewe Alexandra v Newport County
λ 1.29 · μ 1.15 · over 2.5 43.9% (23/18) · BTTS 49.4% (25/24)
Home
39.7%
35/23 (2.52)
Draw
27.4%
61/23 (3.66)
Away
33.0%
49/24 (3.03)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Port Vale v Accrington Stanley
λ 1.76 · μ 0.95 · over 2.5 51.0% (23/24) · BTTS 50.8% (23/24)
Home
56.5%
10/13 (1.77)
Draw
23.4%
59/18 (4.28)
Away
20.1%
95/24 (4.97)
Home
22.0%
85/24 (4.54)
Draw
21.8%
43/12 (4.58)
Away
56.2%
18/23 (1.78)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Salford City v Northampton Town
λ 1.32 · μ 0.86 · over 2.5 37.0% (17/10) · BTTS 42.1% (11/8)
Home
47.3%
10/9 (2.11)
Draw
28.3%
43/17 (3.53)
Away
24.3%
59/19 (4.11)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic
λ 1.40 · μ 1.36 · over 2.5 52.0% (12/13) · BTTS 56.0% (11/14)
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
Draw
25.5%
38/13 (3.92)
Away
36.4%
40/23 (2.74)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
λ 1.69 · μ 1.67 · over 2.5 65.3% (9/17) · BTTS 66.2% (1/2)
Home
39.1%
14/9 (2.56)
Draw
22.8%
61/18 (4.39)
Away
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
Sat 14 Nov, 17:30
Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers
λ 1.55 · μ 0.89 · over 2.5 44.2% (29/23) · BTTS 46.6% (23/20)
Home
52.8%
17/19 (1.89)
Draw
25.5%
67/23 (3.91)
Away
21.6%
76/21 (4.62)
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Gillingham v Crewe Alexandra
λ 1.21 · μ 1.26 · over 2.5 44.9% (27/22) · BTTS 50.3% (1/1)
Home
35.4%
42/23 (2.83)
Draw
27.2%
59/22 (3.68)
Away
37.4%
5/3 (2.67)
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Newport County v Swindon Town
λ 1.77 · μ 0.91 · over 2.5 50.0% (1/1) · BTTS 49.5% (25/24)
Home
57.7%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
23.3%
33/10 (4.30)
Away
19.1%
89/21 (5.24)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Accrington Stanley v Salford City
λ 1.68 · μ 1.09 · over 2.5 52.3% (21/23) · BTTS 54.0% (17/20)
Home
51.1%
22/23 (1.96)
Draw
24.2%
72/23 (4.13)
Away
24.7%
55/18 (4.06)
Home
57.7%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
22.7%
58/17 (4.41)
Away
19.7%
49/12 (5.08)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers
λ 1.54 · μ 1.36 · over 2.5 55.4% (17/21) · BTTS 58.4% (5/7)
Home
41.5%
24/17 (2.41)
Draw
24.7%
58/19 (4.05)
Away
33.8%
45/23 (2.96)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Chesterfield v Shrewsbury Town
λ 1.74 · μ 1.23 · over 2.5 57.0% (3/4) · BTTS 58.3% (5/7)
Home
49.3%
25/24 (2.03)
Draw
23.6%
68/21 (4.24)
Away
27.1%
62/23 (3.69)