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English football, all four divisions

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Expected goals, not a verdict. No tips, no selections. A front door for The Stat Man.

League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta

Walsall

3rd on points, with 22. 8th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 22.91 xG for, 20.56 against, goal difference +9.

Season xGD
+2.35
GF minus xG
-1.91
Last 10 xGD
+0.46
xG per match
1.76

Chances and goals

Goals for xG for Goals against xG against
06111723

Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.

Ratings that feed the price

Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.08 from 6 home matches. Home defence 1.06. Away attack 1.27 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.08.

No fixture for Walsall in the next eight days.

Regression flags

  • Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 8.6 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.

League matches

Walsall league matches with xG
DateH/AOpponentScorexGxGAGF−xG
31 OctAColchester United3-13.142.17-0.14
26 OctHSalford City2-42.132.39-0.13
20 OctHOldham Athletic3-02.531.52+0.47
17 OctASwindon Town1-11.962.06-0.96
10 OctAFleetwood Town1-10.891.57+0.11
26 SeptATranmere Rovers1-10.812.26+0.19
19 SeptHPort Vale2-00.870.54+1.13
12 SeptHRochdale0-01.830.40-1.83
5 SeptAExeter City0-00.401.52-0.40
1 SeptACrewe Alexandra2-21.821.49+0.18
29 AugHAccrington Stanley3-22.222.29+0.78
22 AugHGrimsby Town0-01.210.90-1.21
15 AugAGillingham3-03.101.45-0.10

From the companion site

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