League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Exeter City
12th on points, with 19. 12th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 15.90 xG for, 15.18 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- +0.72
- GF minus xG
- -4.90
- Last 10 xGD
- +0.03
- xG per match
- 1.14
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.97 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.76. Away attack 0.75 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.92.
Next in the eight-day window: Exeter City v Cheltenham Town, Sat 14 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 53.1% (15/17), draw 25.3% (62/21), away 21.6% (40/11). λ 1.57, μ 0.90. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Regression flags
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.2 below xG against across 14 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Salford City | 1-2 | 0.74 | 0.73 | +0.26 |
| 24 Oct | H | Fleetwood Town | 2-1 | 1.11 | 0.99 | +0.89 |
| 20 Oct | H | Crewe Alexandra | 2-0 | 1.83 | 0.93 | +0.17 |
| 17 Oct | A | Colchester United | 0-0 | 0.36 | 1.33 | -0.36 |
| 10 Oct | A | Shrewsbury Town | 1-0 | 1.22 | 1.17 | -0.22 |
| 3 Oct | H | Rotherham United | 1-0 | 2.18 | 0.47 | -1.18 |
| 26 Sept | A | Bristol Rovers | 0-1 | 0.66 | 2.02 | -0.66 |
| 19 Sept | H | Tranmere Rovers | 0-0 | 0.73 | 0.88 | -0.73 |
| 12 Sept | A | Port Vale | 0-1 | 0.55 | 1.95 | -0.55 |
| 5 Sept | H | Walsall | 0-0 | 1.52 | 0.40 | -1.52 |
| 1 Sept | H | Barnet | 1-1 | 1.05 | 1.02 | -0.05 |
| 29 Aug | A | York City | 1-2 | 0.89 | 1.18 | +0.11 |
| 22 Aug | H | Accrington Stanley | 2-0 | 2.31 | 0.68 | -0.31 |
| 15 Aug | A | Grimsby Town | 0-1 | 0.75 | 1.43 | -0.75 |