League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Grimsby Town
6th on points, with 20. 2nd on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 30.08 xG for, 19.38 against, goal difference +6.
- Season xGD
- +10.70
- GF minus xG
- -6.08
- Last 10 xGD
- +9.43
- xG per match
- 2.15
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.34 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.88. Away attack 1.32 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.07.
Next in the eight-day window: Swindon Town v Grimsby Town, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 39.1% (14/9), draw 22.8% (61/18), away 38.1% (13/8). λ 1.69, μ 1.67. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Regression flags
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.1 behind xG across 14 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | York City | 5-2 | 2.58 | 0.41 | +2.42 |
| 24 Oct | A | Gillingham | 4-1 | 2.83 | 1.15 | +1.17 |
| 20 Oct | A | Rochdale | 2-2 | 2.89 | 1.77 | -0.89 |
| 17 Oct | H | Northampton Town | 0-2 | 2.71 | 2.00 | -2.71 |
| 10 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0-1 | 0.45 | 3.18 | -0.45 |
| 3 Oct | H | Shrewsbury Town | 1-2 | 1.56 | 1.13 | -0.56 |
| 26 Sept | A | Newport County | 1-2 | 2.00 | 1.23 | -1.00 |
| 19 Sept | H | Crawley Town | 2-0 | 4.59 | 0.94 | -2.59 |
| 12 Sept | H | Bristol Rovers | 2-0 | 1.44 | 0.11 | +0.56 |
| 5 Sept | A | Cheltenham Town | 2-2 | 1.59 | 1.29 | +0.41 |
| 1 Sept | A | Accrington Stanley | 2-2 | 2.19 | 2.60 | -0.19 |
| 29 Aug | H | Fleetwood Town | 2-2 | 2.92 | 1.61 | -0.92 |
| 22 Aug | A | Walsall | 0-0 | 0.90 | 1.21 | -0.90 |
| 15 Aug | H | Exeter City | 1-0 | 1.43 | 0.75 | -0.43 |