League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Accrington Stanley
9th on points, with 19. 5th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 22.76 xG for, 17.37 against, goal difference +6.
- Season xGD
- +5.39
- GF minus xG
- +0.24
- Last 10 xGD
- +4.50
- xG per match
- 1.63
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.15 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.85. Away attack 1.04 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.98.
Next in the eight-day window: Port Vale v Accrington Stanley, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 56.5% (10/13), draw 23.4% (59/18), away 20.1% (95/24). λ 1.76, μ 0.95. That is a method. It is not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Northampton Town | 1-1 | 1.50 | 0.67 | -0.50 |
| 24 Oct | A | Rochdale | 5-0 | 2.19 | 0.34 | +2.81 |
| 20 Oct | A | York City | 1-1 | 1.07 | 1.49 | -0.07 |
| 17 Oct | H | Gillingham | 3-1 | 1.54 | 0.52 | +1.46 |
| 10 Oct | A | Oldham Athletic | 0-0 | 0.61 | 0.23 | -0.61 |
| 3 Oct | H | Cheltenham Town | 2-0 | 2.59 | 0.34 | -0.59 |
| 26 Sept | A | Swindon Town | 1-1 | 1.50 | 1.83 | -0.50 |
| 19 Sept | H | Newport County | 0-0 | 0.65 | 0.59 | -0.65 |
| 12 Sept | A | Barnet | 1-2 | 0.69 | 2.41 | +0.31 |
| 5 Sept | H | Crawley Town | 3-2 | 2.07 | 1.49 | +0.93 |
| 1 Sept | H | Grimsby Town | 2-2 | 2.60 | 2.19 | -0.60 |
| 29 Aug | A | Walsall | 2-3 | 2.29 | 2.22 | -0.29 |
| 22 Aug | A | Exeter City | 0-2 | 0.68 | 2.31 | -0.68 |
| 15 Aug | H | Colchester United | 2-2 | 2.78 | 0.74 | -0.78 |