Skip to content

English football, all four divisions

xgform

Expected goals, not a verdict. No tips, no selections. A front door for The Stat Man.

League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta

Rotherham United

22nd on points, with 12. 13th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 19.85 xG for, 19.27 against, goal difference -7.

Season xGD
+0.58
GF minus xG
-1.85
Last 10 xGD
-2.83
xG per match
1.42

Chances and goals

Goals for xG for Goals against xG against
06131925

Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.

Ratings that feed the price

Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.03 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.19. Away attack 0.98 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.83.

No fixture for Rotherham United in the next eight days.

No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.

League matches

Rotherham United league matches with xG
DateH/AOpponentScorexGxGAGF−xG
31 OctASwindon Town1-20.330.89+0.67
24 OctHShrewsbury Town3-31.621.79+1.38
20 OctHNewport County2-21.592.23+0.41
17 OctAFleetwood Town0-21.281.86-1.28
10 OctHGillingham1-41.381.86-0.38
3 OctAExeter City0-10.472.18-0.47
26 SeptHCrewe Alexandra1-10.640.35+0.36
19 SeptANorthampton Town1-01.281.06-0.28
12 SeptHSalford City3-32.461.45+0.54
5 SeptABristol Rovers0-10.630.84-0.63
1 SeptATranmere Rovers2-22.020.74-0.02
29 AugHChesterfield2-12.951.10-0.95
22 AugHYork City1-11.002.320.00
15 AugACheltenham Town1-22.200.60-1.20

From the companion site

Take the workings with you

xgform is the daily table. The Stat Man is the book that builds it: Poisson, xG, home advantage, and why a short streak proves almost nothing. The chapter workings, the Poisson predictor and the season simulator all live on statman.uk. There is no separate xgform mailing list.