League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Salford City
1st on points, with 31. 10th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 18.08 xG for, 16.19 against, goal difference +10.
- Season xGD
- +1.89
- GF minus xG
- +6.92
- Last 10 xGD
- +2.18
- xG per match
- 1.29
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.87 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.84. Away attack 1.05 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.92.
Next in the eight-day window: Salford City v Northampton Town, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 47.3% (10/9), draw 28.3% (43/17), away 24.3% (59/19). λ 1.32, μ 0.86. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Regression flags
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.9 ahead of xG across 14 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Exeter City | 2-1 | 0.73 | 0.74 | +1.27 |
| 26 Oct | A | Walsall | 4-2 | 2.39 | 2.13 | +1.61 |
| 20 Oct | A | Bristol Rovers | 2-1 | 0.68 | 1.51 | +1.32 |
| 17 Oct | H | Crawley Town | 2-1 | 1.75 | 0.61 | +0.25 |
| 10 Oct | A | Cheltenham Town | 2-0 | 1.11 | 0.25 | +0.89 |
| 3 Oct | H | Fleetwood Town | 1-0 | 2.04 | 0.62 | -1.04 |
| 26 Sept | A | Oldham Athletic | 4-1 | 1.67 | 1.09 | +2.33 |
| 19 Sept | H | Swindon Town | 1-0 | 1.25 | 1.12 | -0.25 |
| 12 Sept | A | Rotherham United | 3-3 | 1.45 | 2.46 | +1.55 |
| 5 Sept | H | Port Vale | 1-0 | 0.32 | 0.68 | +0.68 |
| 1 Sept | H | Newport County | 2-1 | 2.28 | 0.42 | -0.28 |
| 29 Aug | A | Shrewsbury Town | 0-1 | 0.98 | 0.67 | -0.98 |
| 22 Aug | H | Chesterfield | 0-1 | 0.51 | 2.27 | -0.51 |
| 15 Aug | A | Barnet | 1-3 | 0.92 | 1.62 | +0.08 |