2026/2027 · matchweek 15 · provider tag opta
Championship xG form
Small sample. Six matches will swing on a penalty and a deflection. Read the order as a recent window, not as a ranking with any authority.
| # | Club | Pos | P | xGF | xGA | xGD | GF | GA | GF−xG | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 6 | 14.22 | 4.64 | +9.58 | 13 | 7 | -1.22 | 2.23–0.63 | 2.44–0.85 |
| 2 | West Bromwich Albion | 5 | 6 | 15.43 | 6.00 | +9.43 | 13 | 6 | -2.43 | 3.26–0.88 | 1.88–1.12 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 | 6 | 10.47 | 4.98 | +5.49 | 10 | 4 | -0.47 | 1.47–0.60 | 2.02–1.06 |
| 4 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 6 | 11.07 | 5.58 | +5.49 | 13 | 10 | +1.93 | 2.34–0.76 | 0.86–1.26 |
| 5 | West Ham UnitedFlag | 9 | 6 | 10.89 | 7.01 | +3.88 | 14 | 11 | +3.11 | 1.21–1.81 | 2.12–0.85 |
| 6 | Sheffield United | 10 | 6 | 10.39 | 6.54 | +3.85 | 9 | 8 | -1.39 | 2.12–0.90 | 1.54–1.19 |
| 7 | Norwich CityFlag | 12 | 6 | 9.73 | 7.27 | +2.46 | 15 | 5 | +5.27 | 0.88–1.46 | 2.36–0.96 |
| 8 | Birmingham CityFlag | 1 | 6 | 11.00 | 8.55 | +2.45 | 15 | 3 | +4.00 | 1.97–0.99 | 1.55–2.29 |
| 9 | Cardiff City | 14 | 6 | 14.24 | 11.97 | +2.27 | 16 | 13 | +1.76 | 3.12–1.91 | 0.88–2.17 |
| 10 | Southampton | 7 | 6 | 10.31 | 8.79 | +1.52 | 9 | 5 | -1.31 | 1.70–1.15 | 1.73–1.63 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 17 | 6 | 9.35 | 9.30 | +0.05 | 4 | 11 | -5.35 | 1.31–1.72 | 2.06–1.21 |
| 12 | Millwall | 16 | 6 | 9.43 | 9.50 | -0.07 | 7 | 12 | -2.43 | 2.25–1.42 | 0.89–1.75 |
| 13 | Stoke CityFlag | 3 | 6 | 6.56 | 6.84 | -0.28 | 9 | 5 | +2.44 | 1.30–1.12 | 0.89–1.16 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 15 | 6 | 6.76 | 7.06 | -0.30 | 8 | 7 | +1.24 | 1.13–1.11 | 1.12–1.31 |
| 15 | Swansea City | 6 | 6 | 9.25 | 10.74 | -1.49 | 7 | 11 | -2.25 | 1.92–0.84 | 1.35–2.27 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 11 | 6 | 4.82 | 7.10 | -2.28 | 8 | 5 | +3.18 | 0.87–1.32 | 0.74–1.05 |
| 17 | Charlton Athletic | 19 | 6 | 6.60 | 9.12 | -2.52 | 5 | 12 | -1.60 | 0.90–1.18 | 1.30–1.86 |
| 18 | Burnley | 22 | 6 | 8.92 | 13.09 | -4.17 | 9 | 14 | +0.08 | 1.31–1.53 | 1.66–2.83 |
| 19 | Watford | 20 | 6 | 6.49 | 10.75 | -4.26 | 6 | 9 | -0.49 | 1.28–1.31 | 0.88–2.27 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 21 | 6 | 7.69 | 12.22 | -4.53 | 8 | 15 | +0.31 | 1.36–2.58 | 1.20–1.49 |
| 21 | Derby County | 23 | 6 | 7.27 | 13.53 | -6.26 | 6 | 15 | -1.27 | 1.30–1.62 | 1.12–2.89 |
| 22 | Preston North End | 24 | 6 | 5.91 | 12.61 | -6.70 | 5 | 14 | -0.91 | 1.46–2.15 | 0.51–2.05 |
| 23 | Bolton Wanderers | 18 | 6 | 8.12 | 15.38 | -7.26 | 8 | 12 | -0.12 | 1.17–3.85 | 1.44–1.92 |
| 24 | Blackburn RoversFlag | 13 | 6 | 5.64 | 13.20 | -7.56 | 8 | 10 | +2.36 | 1.36–1.39 | 0.52–3.01 |
Sorted by xG difference in this window. Pos is the season position on points, so a club can lead this list and sit mid-table. Home and away are xG for and against per match. GF−xG is goals minus xG: a positive number is more goals than the shots were worth. xG is an input, not a claim about who should have won.
Regression flags
- Birmingham City
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.5 below xG against across 15 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Stoke City
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 8.3 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- West Ham United
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.7 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- Norwich City
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 7.4 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- Blackburn Rovers
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.5 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
A flag needs eight matches, a gap of at least six goals, and at least 0.40 of a goal per match. It is a marker for Chapter 20’s regression question. It is not a selection.
Home advantage, this season
Home sides in the Championship are averaging 1.59 xG. Away sides are averaging 1.34. That gap is this season’s home advantage, estimated from the shots, not a constant carried over from a textbook.
Fair prices from xG
The next eight days, priced from season home and away xG with a four-match shrinkage towards the league average. These are the model’s probabilities and the fair fractional odds that fall out of them. The margin is already off. They are not a bookmaker’s price, and they are not a suggestion to bet. Plain Poisson, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Millwall v Queens Park Rangers
λ 1.68 · μ 1.21 · over 2.5 55.1% (13/16) · BTTS 57.1% (3/4)
Home
48.4%
16/15 (2.07)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
27.5%
50/19 (3.63)
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Norwich City v Cardiff City
λ 1.68 · μ 1.38 · over 2.5 58.9% (16/23) · BTTS 60.8% (9/14)
Home
44.6%
26/21 (2.24)
Draw
23.8%
77/24 (4.21)
Away
31.6%
13/6 (3.16)
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Southampton v Derby County
λ 2.21 · μ 1.09 · over 2.5 64.0% (9/16) · BTTS 59.1% (9/13)
Home
62.6%
3/5 (1.60)
Draw
19.6%
45/11 (5.09)
Away
17.7%
51/11 (5.64)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth
λ 1.27 · μ 1.47 · over 2.5 51.6% (15/16) · BTTS 55.4% (4/5)
Home
32.9%
49/24 (3.04)
Draw
25.5%
41/14 (3.93)
Away
41.7%
7/5 (2.40)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Lincoln City v Wrexham
λ 1.36 · μ 1.24 · over 2.5 48.2% (14/13) · BTTS 52.8% (17/19)
Home
39.6%
32/21 (2.52)
Draw
26.3%
14/5 (3.80)
Away
34.1%
31/16 (2.94)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Middlesbrough v Bristol City
λ 1.69 · μ 1.37 · over 2.5 59.0% (16/23) · BTTS 60.8% (11/17)
Home
45.2%
17/14 (2.21)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
31.1%
31/14 (3.21)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Sheffield United v Watford
λ 1.61 · μ 1.11 · over 2.5 51.2% (21/22) · BTTS 53.7% (19/22)
Home
49.1%
25/24 (2.04)
Draw
24.8%
73/24 (4.04)
Away
26.2%
31/11 (3.82)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Stoke City v Birmingham City
λ 1.17 · μ 1.31 · over 2.5 45.2% (17/14) · BTTS 50.4% (1/1)
Home
33.0%
49/24 (3.03)
Draw
27.0%
27/10 (3.70)
Away
40.0%
3/2 (2.50)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
λ 1.84 · μ 1.14 · over 2.5 57.3% (3/4) · BTTS 57.2% (3/4)
Home
53.7%
19/22 (1.86)
Draw
22.8%
44/13 (4.38)
Away
23.5%
75/23 (4.26)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
West Ham United v Preston North End
λ 2.08 · μ 1.01 · over 2.5 59.8% (2/3) · BTTS 55.7% (19/24)
Home
61.9%
8/13 (1.61)
Draw
20.5%
66/17 (4.88)
Away
17.6%
103/22 (5.68)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Charlton Athletic
λ 2.09 · μ 0.80 · over 2.5 55.1% (13/16) · BTTS 48.3% (15/14)
Home
67.1%
1/2 (1.49)
Draw
19.6%
41/10 (5.10)
Away
13.3%
13/2 (7.51)
Sun 22 Nov, 12:00
Burnley v Blackburn Rovers
λ 1.62 · μ 0.90 · over 2.5 46.1% (7/6) · BTTS 47.6% (11/10)
Home
54.3%
16/19 (1.84)
Draw
24.8%
73/24 (4.03)
Away
20.9%
53/14 (4.78)
Home
31.1%
42/19 (3.21)
Draw
27.8%
57/22 (3.59)
Away
41.0%
23/16 (2.44)
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45
Cardiff City v Preston North End
λ 2.45 · μ 1.36 · over 2.5 73.3% (4/11) · BTTS 67.9% (9/19)
Home
61.5%
5/8 (1.63)
Draw
18.5%
101/23 (5.39)
Away
20.0%
4/1 (5.00)
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45
Charlton Athletic v Lincoln City
λ 1.07 · μ 0.99 · over 2.5 34.0% (33/17) · BTTS 41.3% (27/19)
Home
37.0%
17/10 (2.70)
Draw
30.3%
53/23 (3.31)
Away
32.7%
37/18 (3.06)
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45
Middlesbrough v Swansea City
λ 1.97 · μ 1.18 · over 2.5 61.1% (7/11) · BTTS 59.7% (15/22)
Home
55.8%
19/24 (1.79)
Draw
21.7%
18/5 (4.60)
Away
22.5%
69/20 (4.45)