Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Millwall
16th on points, with 18. 7th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 26.87 xG for, 21.96 against, goal difference -4.
- Season xGD
- +4.91
- GF minus xG
- -3.87
- Last 10 xGD
- +1.75
- xG per match
- 1.79
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.22 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.99. Away attack 1.07 from 8 away matches. Away defence 1.00.
Next in the eight-day window: Millwall v Queens Park Rangers, Sat 21 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 48.4% (16/15), draw 24.1% (41/13), away 27.5% (50/19). λ 1.68, μ 1.21. That is a method. It is not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | West Bromwich Albion | 0-3 | 0.42 | 3.14 | -0.42 |
| 3 Nov | A | Birmingham City | 0-3 | 1.42 | 1.35 | -1.42 |
| 31 Oct | H | Derby County | 4-1 | 3.73 | 1.25 | +0.27 |
| 24 Oct | A | Portsmouth | 1-2 | 0.84 | 0.75 | +0.16 |
| 17 Oct | H | Lincoln City | 2-2 | 2.12 | 1.32 | -0.12 |
| 13 Oct | H | Swansea City | 0-1 | 0.90 | 1.69 | -0.90 |
| 10 Oct | A | Preston North End | 1-0 | 1.09 | 0.65 | -0.09 |
| 19 Sept | H | West Ham United | 2-2 | 2.68 | 1.87 | -0.68 |
| 15 Sept | A | Middlesbrough | 2-2 | 1.69 | 1.52 | +0.31 |
| 12 Sept | A | Blackburn Rovers | 1-3 | 1.63 | 1.23 | -0.63 |
| 5 Sept | H | Bolton Wanderers | 4-0 | 2.67 | 1.15 | +1.33 |
| 2 Sept | H | Wrexham | 0-3 | 0.24 | 0.88 | -0.24 |
| 29 Aug | A | Southampton | 1-5 | 1.35 | 3.62 | -0.35 |
| 22 Aug | H | Norwich City | 3-0 | 2.69 | 1.02 | +0.31 |
| 15 Aug | A | Bristol City | 2-0 | 3.40 | 0.52 | -1.40 |