Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Stoke City
3rd on points, with 29. 17th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 15.69 xG for, 21.97 against, goal difference +6.
- Season xGD
- -6.28
- GF minus xG
- +8.31
- Last 10 xGD
- -3.76
- xG per match
- 1.05
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.82 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.80. Away attack 0.82 from 8 away matches. Away defence 1.15.
Next in the eight-day window: Stoke City v Birmingham City, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 33.0% (49/24), draw 27.0% (27/10), away 40.0% (3/2). λ 1.17, μ 1.31. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Regression flags
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 8.3 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Portsmouth | 2-1 | 0.86 | 0.51 | +1.14 |
| 3 Nov | A | Blackburn Rovers | 2-1 | 1.22 | 1.82 | +0.78 |
| 31 Oct | H | Preston North End | 2-0 | 2.22 | 0.10 | -0.22 |
| 24 Oct | H | Bristol City | 0-0 | 1.05 | 0.78 | -1.05 |
| 17 Oct | A | Derby County | 1-0 | 0.59 | 1.14 | +0.41 |
| 13 Oct | H | Middlesbrough | 2-3 | 0.62 | 2.49 | +1.38 |
| 10 Oct | A | Bolton Wanderers | 2-1 | 0.74 | 3.13 | +1.26 |
| 19 Sept | H | Sheffield United | 2-1 | 0.65 | 0.36 | +1.35 |
| 12 Sept | A | Watford | 2-1 | 1.50 | 0.39 | +0.50 |
| 8 Sept | A | Cardiff City | 1-1 | 1.11 | 3.60 | -0.11 |
| 5 Sept | H | Charlton Athletic | 4-0 | 2.14 | 0.61 | +1.86 |
| 1 Sept | H | Norwich City | 1-0 | 0.58 | 1.44 | +0.42 |
| 29 Aug | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1-4 | 0.83 | 2.66 | +0.17 |
| 22 Aug | A | Southampton | 1-3 | 0.93 | 2.32 | +0.07 |
| 15 Aug | H | Swansea City | 1-2 | 0.65 | 0.62 | +0.35 |