Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Burnley
22nd on points, with 10. 19th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 20.14 xG for, 26.87 against, goal difference -9.
- Season xGD
- -6.73
- GF minus xG
- +1.86
- Last 10 xGD
- -5.03
- xG per match
- 1.34
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.79 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.02. Away attack 1.13 from 8 away matches. Away defence 1.23.
Next in the eight-day window: Burnley v Blackburn Rovers, Sun 22 Nov, 12:00. The model’s fair prices are home 54.3% (16/19), draw 24.8% (73/24), away 20.9% (53/14). λ 1.62, μ 0.90. That is a method. It is not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Cardiff City | 4-5 | 2.38 | 4.61 | +1.62 |
| 3 Nov | A | Queens Park Rangers | 1-1 | 0.15 | 1.76 | +0.85 |
| 31 Oct | H | Portsmouth | 0-0 | 1.89 | 0.25 | -1.89 |
| 24 Oct | A | Lincoln City | 1-4 | 2.46 | 2.13 | -1.46 |
| 16 Oct | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1-2 | 1.03 | 2.00 | -0.03 |
| 13 Oct | H | Charlton Athletic | 2-2 | 1.01 | 2.34 | +0.99 |
| 10 Oct | A | Watford | 4-0 | 1.94 | 0.75 | +2.06 |
| 19 Sept | H | Derby County | 1-1 | 0.45 | 1.75 | +0.55 |
| 12 Sept | A | Swansea City | 1-3 | 1.73 | 2.63 | -0.73 |
| 8 Sept | A | Wrexham | 1-1 | 1.50 | 1.35 | -0.50 |
| 5 Sept | H | Bristol City | 1-2 | 0.26 | 1.07 | +0.74 |
| 2 Sept | H | Middlesbrough | 1-1 | 0.68 | 0.97 | +0.32 |
| 29 Aug | A | Norwich City | 1-4 | 1.38 | 2.30 | -0.38 |
| 23 Aug | A | West Bromwich Albion | 1-3 | 1.18 | 1.63 | -0.18 |
| 16 Aug | H | West Ham United | 2-2 | 2.10 | 1.33 | -0.10 |