Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Blackburn Rovers
13th on points, with 21. 22nd on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 15.50 xG for, 26.53 against, goal difference -1.
- Season xGD
- -11.03
- GF minus xG
- +6.50
- Last 10 xGD
- -6.64
- xG per match
- 1.03
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.92 from 8 home matches. Home defence 0.97. Away attack 0.66 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.29.
Next in the eight-day window: Burnley v Blackburn Rovers, Sun 22 Nov, 12:00. The model’s fair prices are home 54.3% (16/19), draw 24.8% (73/24), away 20.9% (53/14). λ 1.62, μ 0.90. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Regression flags
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.5 ahead of xG across 15 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | West Ham United | 2-1 | 0.88 | 1.34 | +1.12 |
| 3 Nov | H | Stoke City | 1-2 | 1.82 | 1.22 | -0.82 |
| 31 Oct | A | Swansea City | 0-4 | 0.53 | 2.78 | -0.53 |
| 24 Oct | H | Wrexham | 2-0 | 1.37 | 1.60 | +0.63 |
| 17 Oct | A | West Bromwich Albion | 2-3 | 0.84 | 4.19 | +1.16 |
| 13 Oct | A | Bristol City | 1-0 | 0.20 | 2.07 | +0.80 |
| 10 Oct | H | Cardiff City | 2-1 | 2.42 | 1.05 | -0.42 |
| 19 Sept | A | Portsmouth | 2-2 | 0.59 | 1.60 | +1.41 |
| 12 Sept | H | Millwall | 3-1 | 1.23 | 1.63 | +1.77 |
| 8 Sept | H | Sheffield United | 1-2 | 1.62 | 0.66 | -0.62 |
| 5 Sept | A | Preston North End | 1-2 | 1.09 | 2.19 | -0.09 |
| 1 Sept | A | Lincoln City | 0-0 | 0.24 | 1.46 | -0.24 |
| 29 Aug | H | Queens Park Rangers | 1-2 | 0.92 | 1.34 | +0.08 |
| 22 Aug | H | Middlesbrough | 2-1 | 0.91 | 1.43 | +1.09 |
| 14 Aug | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-2 | 0.84 | 1.97 | +1.16 |