Championship · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Birmingham City
1st on points, with 29. 5th on season xG difference. 15 league matches, 26.31 xG for, 20.52 against, goal difference +14.
- Season xGD
- +5.79
- GF minus xG
- +1.69
- Last 10 xGD
- +5.72
- xG per match
- 1.75
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.04 from 8 home matches. Home defence 1.03. Away attack 1.23 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.90.
Next in the eight-day window: Stoke City v Birmingham City, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 33.0% (49/24), draw 27.0% (27/10), away 40.0% (3/2). λ 1.17, μ 1.31. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Regression flags
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.5 below xG against across 15 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Swansea City | 2-1 | 2.91 | 1.05 | -0.91 |
| 3 Nov | H | Millwall | 3-0 | 1.35 | 1.42 | +1.65 |
| 31 Oct | A | Lincoln City | 3-1 | 2.07 | 1.60 | +0.93 |
| 24 Oct | A | Cardiff City | 0-1 | 1.04 | 2.97 | -1.04 |
| 17 Oct | H | Queens Park Rangers | 3-0 | 1.31 | 0.96 | +1.69 |
| 13 Oct | H | Preston North End | 4-0 | 2.32 | 0.55 | +1.68 |
| 10 Oct | A | West Bromwich Albion | 1-0 | 2.55 | 1.05 | -1.55 |
| 19 Sept | H | Middlesbrough | 2-2 | 1.23 | 2.14 | +0.77 |
| 12 Sept | A | Derby County | 2-1 | 3.17 | 1.11 | -1.17 |
| 9 Sept | A | Norwich City | 1-2 | 1.63 | 1.01 | -0.63 |
| 6 Sept | H | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-2 | 1.39 | 2.47 | +0.61 |
| 1 Sept | H | Southampton | 1-1 | 1.55 | 1.02 | -0.55 |
| 28 Aug | A | Wrexham | 2-1 | 1.52 | 1.37 | +0.48 |
| 22 Aug | H | Bristol City | 2-2 | 1.50 | 1.51 | +0.50 |
| 15 Aug | A | Sheffield United | 0-0 | 0.77 | 0.29 | -0.77 |