2026/2027 · matchweek 10 · provider tag enet
Premier League xG form
Small sample. Six matches will swing on a penalty and a deflection. Read the order as a recent window, not as a ranking with any authority.
| # | Club | Pos | P | xGF | xGA | xGD | GF | GA | GF−xG | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AFC Bournemouth | 7 | 6 | 12.07 | 5.96 | +6.11 | 10 | 7 | -2.07 | 2.10–0.81 | 1.92–1.18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 6 | 9.30 | 4.87 | +4.43 | 7 | 4 | -2.30 | 1.85–0.54 | 1.25–1.09 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 11 | 6 | 8.97 | 5.40 | +3.57 | 10 | 6 | +1.03 | 1.96–0.72 | 1.03–1.08 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 3 | 6 | 12.41 | 9.04 | +3.37 | 13 | 11 | +0.59 | 2.60–2.14 | 1.53–0.87 |
| 5 | Nottingham ForestFlag | 16 | 6 | 9.55 | 6.90 | +2.65 | 5 | 9 | -4.55 | 1.02–1.19 | 2.16–1.11 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionFlag | 2 | 6 | 9.15 | 6.55 | +2.60 | 13 | 2 | +3.85 | 1.81–1.00 | 1.24–1.19 |
| 7 | Fulham | 15 | 6 | 8.30 | 6.39 | +1.91 | 6 | 5 | -2.30 | 1.23–0.97 | 1.53–1.16 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 6 | 9.13 | 7.85 | +1.28 | 8 | 6 | -1.13 | 1.06–1.19 | 1.98–1.42 |
| 9 | Everton | 6 | 6 | 8.75 | 8.70 | +0.05 | 7 | 7 | -1.75 | 1.37–1.37 | 1.55–1.53 |
| 10 | Leeds United | 9 | 6 | 6.77 | 7.15 | -0.38 | 3 | 5 | -3.77 | 1.56–0.90 | 0.70–1.48 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 10 | 6 | 10.43 | 10.96 | -0.53 | 13 | 10 | +2.57 | 1.57–1.62 | 1.90–2.03 |
| 12 | SunderlandFlag | 19 | 6 | 9.39 | 10.57 | -1.18 | 5 | 12 | -4.39 | 1.31–0.94 | 1.82–2.58 |
| 13 | Chelsea | 5 | 6 | 7.54 | 8.82 | -1.28 | 9 | 7 | +1.46 | 1.53–1.12 | 0.99–1.82 |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 12 | 6 | 7.65 | 9.26 | -1.61 | 6 | 8 | -1.65 | 1.24–1.83 | 1.31–1.25 |
| 15 | Brentford | 8 | 6 | 7.38 | 9.29 | -1.91 | 9 | 7 | +1.62 | 1.33–1.11 | 1.13–1.99 |
| 16 | Coventry City | 17 | 6 | 5.32 | 7.60 | -2.28 | 10 | 9 | +4.68 | 0.89–1.40 | 0.88–1.13 |
| 17 | Hull City | 13 | 6 | 5.79 | 8.56 | -2.77 | 6 | 9 | +0.21 | 1.23–1.49 | 0.70–1.36 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 18 | 6 | 9.28 | 12.69 | -3.41 | 7 | 12 | -2.28 | 1.84–2.22 | 1.25–2.01 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 20 | 6 | 8.57 | 13.72 | -5.15 | 4 | 13 | -4.57 | 2.20–2.31 | 0.66–2.26 |
| 20 | Ipswich Town | 14 | 6 | 7.23 | 12.70 | -5.47 | 8 | 10 | +0.77 | 0.96–2.11 | 1.45–2.12 |
Sorted by xG difference in this window. Pos is the season position on points, so a club can lead this list and sit mid-table. Home and away are xG for and against per match. GF−xG is goals minus xG: a positive number is more goals than the shots were worth. xG is an input, not a claim about who should have won.
Regression flags
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.7 ahead of xG across 10 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.6 below xG against across 10 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Nottingham Forest
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.7 behind xG across 10 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
- Sunderland
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 7.6 behind xG across 10 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
A flag needs eight matches, a gap of at least six goals, and at least 0.40 of a goal per match. It is a marker for Chapter 20’s regression question. It is not a selection.
Home advantage, this season
Home sides in the Premier League are averaging 1.57 xG. Away sides are averaging 1.36. That gap is this season’s home advantage, estimated from the shots, not a constant carried over from a textbook.
Fair prices from xG
The next eight days, priced from season home and away xG with a four-match shrinkage towards the league average. These are the model’s probabilities and the fair fractional odds that fall out of them. The margin is already off. They are not a bookmaker’s price, and they are not a suggestion to bet. Plain Poisson, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Manchester City v Fulham
λ 1.90 · μ 1.47 · over 2.5 65.5% (10/19) · BTTS 65.6% (10/19)
Home
47.7%
11/10 (2.10)
Draw
22.2%
7/2 (4.50)
Away
30.1%
51/22 (3.32)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest
λ 1.58 · μ 1.53 · over 2.5 60.1% (2/3) · BTTS 62.2% (14/23)
Home
39.2%
31/20 (2.55)
Draw
23.8%
16/5 (4.20)
Away
37.0%
17/10 (2.70)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Aston Villa v Sunderland
λ 1.63 · μ 1.64 · over 2.5 63.4% (11/19) · BTTS 64.8% (13/24)
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.62)
Draw
23.1%
73/22 (4.32)
Away
38.7%
19/12 (2.58)
Home
48.1%
14/13 (2.08)
Draw
25.1%
71/24 (3.98)
Away
26.7%
63/23 (3.74)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Coventry City v Crystal Palace
λ 1.58 · μ 1.36 · over 2.5 56.2% (18/23) · BTTS 58.9% (16/23)
Home
42.6%
31/23 (2.35)
Draw
24.5%
34/11 (4.09)
Away
32.9%
49/24 (3.04)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town
λ 1.98 · μ 1.16 · over 2.5 60.8% (9/14) · BTTS 59.2% (11/16)
Home
56.5%
10/13 (1.77)
Draw
21.6%
29/8 (4.62)
Away
21.9%
82/23 (4.57)
Sat 21 Nov, 17:30
Newcastle United v Arsenal
λ 1.13 · μ 1.68 · over 2.5 53.3% (7/8) · BTTS 55.0% (9/11)
Home
25.5%
35/12 (3.92)
Draw
24.2%
22/7 (4.14)
Away
50.3%
1/1 (1.99)
Sun 22 Nov, 14:00
Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion
λ 1.28 · μ 1.66 · over 2.5 56.4% (17/22) · BTTS 58.5% (17/24)
Home
29.5%
55/23 (3.39)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
46.4%
15/13 (2.15)
Sun 22 Nov, 16:30
Liverpool v Manchester United
λ 1.41 · μ 1.28 · over 2.5 50.4% (1/1) · BTTS 54.5% (5/6)
Home
40.1%
3/2 (2.49)
Draw
25.8%
23/8 (3.87)
Away
34.1%
29/15 (2.93)
Home
45.6%
25/21 (2.19)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
30.3%
23/10 (3.30)
Fri 27 Nov, 20:00
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
λ 1.30 · μ 1.06 · over 2.5 41.8% (32/23) · BTTS 47.4% (10/9)
Home
42.1%
11/8 (2.38)
Draw
27.7%
60/23 (3.61)
Away
30.2%
37/16 (3.31)
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00
Leeds United v Coventry City
λ 1.55 · μ 0.94 · over 2.5 45.3% (29/24) · BTTS 47.9% (25/23)
Home
51.6%
15/16 (1.94)
Draw
25.6%
67/23 (3.91)
Away
22.8%
71/21 (4.38)
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00
Manchester United v Brentford
λ 2.14 · μ 1.52 · over 2.5 70.8% (7/17) · BTTS 69.0% (9/20)
Home
51.8%
14/15 (1.93)
Draw
20.8%
80/21 (4.81)
Away
27.4%
37/14 (3.64)
Sat 28 Nov, 17:30
Ipswich Town v Aston Villa
λ 1.54 · μ 1.59 · over 2.5 60.6% (15/23) · BTTS 62.6% (3/5)
Home
37.0%
29/17 (2.70)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
39.3%
37/24 (2.54)
Home
29.1%
56/23 (3.44)
Draw
24.1%
60/19 (4.16)
Away
46.8%
25/22 (2.14)