Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Aston Villa
10th on points, with 13. 15th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 13.80 xG for, 18.62 against, goal difference -3.
- Season xGD
- -4.82
- GF minus xG
- +0.20
- Last 10 xGD
- -4.82
- xG per match
- 1.38
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.86 from 5 home matches. Home defence 1.11. Away attack 1.09 from 5 away matches. Away defence 1.19.
Next in the eight-day window: Aston Villa v Sunderland, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 38.1% (13/8), draw 23.1% (73/22), away 38.7% (19/12). λ 1.63, μ 1.64. That is a method. It is not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov | A | Manchester United | 4-4 | 2.88 | 3.55 | +1.12 |
| 31 Oct | H | Fulham | 1-1 | 1.83 | 2.24 | -0.83 |
| 24 Oct | H | Manchester City | 2-1 | 0.61 | 1.56 | +1.39 |
| 17 Oct | A | Newcastle United | 1-0 | 1.57 | 0.99 | -0.57 |
| 10 Oct | H | Brentford | 2-2 | 2.28 | 1.06 | -0.28 |
| 19 Sept | A | Tottenham Hotspur | 3-2 | 1.26 | 1.56 | +1.74 |
| 12 Sept | H | Nottingham Forest | 1-2 | 0.82 | 2.28 | +0.18 |
| 5 Sept | A | Hull City | 0-0 | 1.93 | 0.57 | -1.93 |
| 31 Aug | H | Arsenal | 0-1 | 0.33 | 1.04 | -0.33 |
| 23 Aug | A | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0-4 | 0.29 | 3.77 | -0.29 |