Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Brighton & Hove Albion
2nd on points, with 22. 4th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 19.33 xG for, 13.59 against, goal difference +19.
- Season xGD
- +5.74
- GF minus xG
- +6.67
- Last 10 xGD
- +5.74
- xG per match
- 1.93
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.25 from 5 home matches. Home defence 0.92. Away attack 1.10 from 5 away matches. Away defence 1.00.
Next in the eight-day window: Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion, Sun 22 Nov, 14:00. The model’s fair prices are home 29.5% (55/23), draw 24.1% (41/13), away 46.4% (15/13). λ 1.28, μ 1.66. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Regression flags
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.7 ahead of xG across 10 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.6 below xG against across 10 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov | H | Brentford | 2-0 | 2.11 | 0.59 | -0.11 |
| 31 Oct | A | Manchester City | 1-0 | 1.00 | 1.64 | 0.00 |
| 25 Oct | A | Liverpool | 0-2 | 1.32 | 1.20 | -1.32 |
| 18 Oct | H | Crystal Palace | 5-0 | 2.00 | 0.77 | +3.00 |
| 10 Oct | A | Sunderland | 2-0 | 1.41 | 0.72 | +0.59 |
| 19 Sept | H | Arsenal | 3-0 | 1.31 | 1.63 | +1.69 |
| 13 Sept | A | Coventry City | 5-0 | 2.81 | 1.33 | +2.19 |
| 5 Sept | H | Leeds United | 1-1 | 2.19 | 2.49 | -1.19 |
| 30 Aug | A | Chelsea | 3-4 | 1.41 | 2.93 | +1.59 |
| 23 Aug | H | Aston Villa | 4-0 | 3.77 | 0.29 | +0.23 |