Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Nottingham Forest
16th on points, with 9. 5th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 15.71 xG for, 11.00 against, goal difference -4.
- Season xGD
- +4.71
- GF minus xG
- -6.71
- Last 10 xGD
- +4.71
- xG per match
- 1.57
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.77 from 5 home matches. Home defence 0.86. Away attack 1.35 from 5 away matches. Away defence 0.86.
Next in the eight-day window: AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 39.2% (31/20), draw 23.8% (16/5), away 37.0% (17/10). λ 1.58, μ 1.53. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Regression flags
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.7 behind xG across 10 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Manchester City | 3-1 | 1.06 | 1.76 | +1.94 |
| 31 Oct | A | Brentford | 0-2 | 0.86 | 0.46 | -0.86 |
| 23 Oct | A | Ipswich Town | 1-1 | 2.29 | 0.46 | -1.29 |
| 18 Oct | H | Arsenal | 0-1 | 0.90 | 1.14 | -0.90 |
| 11 Oct | A | Crystal Palace | 1-3 | 3.34 | 2.41 | -2.34 |
| 19 Sept | H | Coventry City | 0-1 | 1.10 | 0.67 | -1.10 |
| 12 Sept | A | Aston Villa | 2-1 | 2.28 | 0.82 | -0.28 |
| 5 Sept | H | Tottenham Hotspur | 0-0 | 0.92 | 1.06 | -0.92 |
| 29 Aug | A | Liverpool | 2-2 | 2.30 | 1.75 | -0.30 |
| 22 Aug | H | Leeds United | 0-1 | 0.66 | 0.47 | -0.66 |