2026/2027 · matchweek 14 · provider tag opta
League One xG form
Small sample. Six matches will swing on a penalty and a deflection. Read the order as a recent window, not as a ranking with any authority.
| # | Club | Pos | P | xGF | xGA | xGD | GF | GA | GF−xG | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockport County | 2 | 6 | 15.58 | 6.22 | +9.36 | 9 | 4 | -6.58 | 2.15–1.14 | 3.04–0.93 |
| 2 | Leicester City | 10 | 6 | 14.85 | 7.18 | +7.67 | 13 | 8 | -1.85 | 2.66–1.33 | 2.12–0.93 |
| 3 | Huddersfield Town | 1 | 6 | 12.51 | 5.80 | +6.71 | 14 | 5 | +1.49 | 1.99–1.00 | 2.28–0.90 |
| 4 | Mansfield Town | 11 | 6 | 12.81 | 6.47 | +6.34 | 10 | 5 | -2.81 | 2.50–1.01 | 1.77–1.15 |
| 5 | Milton Keynes Dons | 12 | 6 | 12.55 | 8.02 | +4.53 | 14 | 10 | +1.45 | 2.33–1.70 | 1.61–0.60 |
| 6 | Reading | 6 | 6 | 10.90 | 7.04 | +3.86 | 8 | 5 | -2.90 | 1.38–1.83 | 2.04–0.85 |
| 7 | Luton Town | 4 | 6 | 10.71 | 7.11 | +3.60 | 11 | 6 | +0.29 | 2.40–1.25 | 1.17–1.12 |
| 8 | Bradford City | 7 | 6 | 8.14 | 7.09 | +1.05 | 3 | 4 | -5.14 | 1.49–1.08 | 1.23–1.29 |
| 9 | Wycombe Wanderers | 13 | 6 | 8.89 | 7.91 | +0.98 | 10 | 9 | +1.11 | 1.54–1.31 | 1.35–1.32 |
| 10 | Cambridge United | 8 | 6 | 9.93 | 8.96 | +0.97 | 8 | 10 | -1.93 | 1.39–1.11 | 1.92–1.87 |
| 11 | Peterborough UnitedFlag | 22 | 6 | 10.21 | 9.88 | +0.33 | 7 | 11 | -3.21 | 2.12–1.10 | 1.50–1.92 |
| 12 | Leyton OrientFlag | 14 | 6 | 8.69 | 8.79 | -0.10 | 6 | 5 | -2.69 | 1.62–1.53 | 1.28–1.40 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 16 | 6 | 8.65 | 9.16 | -0.51 | 6 | 6 | -2.65 | 1.60–1.35 | 1.29–1.71 |
| 14 | Plymouth Argyle | 5 | 6 | 8.39 | 8.99 | -0.60 | 7 | 8 | -1.39 | 1.20–1.56 | 1.60–1.44 |
| 15 | Oxford UnitedFlag | 3 | 6 | 9.59 | 10.30 | -0.71 | 7 | 3 | -2.59 | 1.52–1.41 | 1.77–2.33 |
| 16 | Sheffield Wednesday | 9 | 6 | 8.32 | 9.97 | -1.65 | 9 | 8 | +0.68 | 1.70–1.28 | 1.08–2.04 |
| 17 | Notts County | 17 | 6 | 5.85 | 8.91 | -3.06 | 6 | 7 | +0.15 | 1.15–1.44 | 0.80–1.53 |
| 18 | Wigan AthleticFlag | 21 | 6 | 8.27 | 11.99 | -3.72 | 6 | 9 | -2.27 | 2.07–1.59 | 0.69–2.41 |
| 19 | Burton Albion | 15 | 6 | 6.34 | 10.87 | -4.53 | 5 | 9 | -1.34 | 1.18–1.88 | 0.93–1.75 |
| 20 | Barnsley | 23 | 6 | 7.92 | 12.70 | -4.78 | 6 | 11 | -1.92 | 1.39–2.25 | 1.25–1.99 |
| 21 | Blackpool | 19 | 6 | 5.08 | 10.54 | -5.46 | 6 | 12 | +0.92 | 0.85–1.97 | 0.84–1.54 |
| 22 | AFC Wimbledon | 18 | 6 | 6.15 | 12.09 | -5.94 | 4 | 14 | -2.15 | 1.19–1.66 | 0.94–2.19 |
| 23 | Doncaster Rovers | 20 | 6 | 6.20 | 16.19 | -9.99 | 6 | 13 | -0.20 | 0.90–2.06 | 1.16–3.34 |
| 24 | Bromley | 24 | 6 | 4.48 | 14.67 | -10.19 | 5 | 15 | +0.52 | 0.40–2.25 | 0.92–2.54 |
Sorted by xG difference in this window. Pos is the season position on points, so a club can lead this list and sit mid-table. Home and away are xG for and against per match. GF−xG is goals minus xG: a positive number is more goals than the shots were worth. xG is an input, not a claim about who should have won.
Regression flags
- Oxford United
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 9.6 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Leyton Orient
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.8 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Wigan Athletic
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 9.3 behind xG across 14 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
- Peterborough United
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 8.8 behind xG across 13 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
A flag needs eight matches, a gap of at least six goals, and at least 0.40 of a goal per match. It is a marker for Chapter 20’s regression question. It is not a selection.
Home advantage, this season
Home sides in the League One are averaging 1.56 xG. Away sides are averaging 1.41. That gap is this season’s home advantage, estimated from the shots, not a constant carried over from a textbook.
Fair prices from xG
The next eight days, priced from season home and away xG with a four-match shrinkage towards the league average. These are the model’s probabilities and the fair fractional odds that fall out of them. The margin is already off. They are not a bookmaker’s price, and they are not a suggestion to bet. Plain Poisson, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool
λ 1.60 · μ 1.49 · over 2.5 59.5% (15/22) · BTTS 61.7% (13/21)
Home
40.5%
25/17 (2.47)
Draw
23.9%
51/16 (4.19)
Away
35.7%
9/5 (2.80)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
λ 1.86 · μ 1.11 · over 2.5 57.0% (3/4) · BTTS 56.6% (13/17)
Home
54.9%
14/17 (1.82)
Draw
22.6%
65/19 (4.42)
Away
22.5%
69/20 (4.45)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
λ 1.74 · μ 1.51 · over 2.5 63.1% (10/17) · BTTS 64.3% (5/9)
Home
43.2%
25/19 (2.32)
Draw
23.1%
10/3 (4.33)
Away
33.8%
47/24 (2.96)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Stockport County v Reading
λ 1.47 · μ 1.65 · over 2.5 60.4% (15/23) · BTTS 62.2% (14/23)
Home
34.2%
27/14 (2.93)
Draw
23.6%
71/22 (4.23)
Away
42.2%
26/19 (2.37)
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Wigan Athletic v Barnsley
λ 1.59 · μ 1.48 · over 2.5 59.4% (13/19) · BTTS 61.6% (5/8)
Home
40.4%
34/23 (2.48)
Draw
23.9%
35/11 (4.18)
Away
35.7%
9/5 (2.80)
Fri 20 Nov, 20:00
Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
λ 1.74 · μ 1.97 · over 2.5 71.6% (2/5) · BTTS 70.9% (9/22)
Home
34.6%
17/9 (2.89)
Draw
21.4%
11/3 (4.66)
Away
43.9%
23/18 (2.28)
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Blackpool v Wigan Athletic
λ 1.71 · μ 1.49 · over 2.5 62.0% (11/18) · BTTS 63.4% (11/19)
Home
43.2%
25/19 (2.31)
Draw
23.3%
56/17 (4.30)
Away
33.5%
2/1 (2.98)
Home
66.9%
1/2 (1.49)
Draw
17.4%
71/15 (5.73)
Away
15.6%
124/23 (6.39)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Bradford City v Doncaster Rovers
λ 1.92 · μ 1.10 · over 2.5 58.2% (13/18) · BTTS 56.9% (16/21)
Home
56.6%
13/17 (1.77)
Draw
22.1%
53/15 (4.53)
Away
21.3%
70/19 (4.68)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Burton Albion v Luton Town
λ 1.26 · μ 1.53 · over 2.5 52.7% (9/10) · BTTS 56.0% (11/14)
Home
31.3%
11/5 (3.20)
Draw
25.1%
3/1 (3.99)
Away
43.6%
31/24 (2.29)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Cambridge United v Stockport County
λ 1.13 · μ 1.93 · over 2.5 58.9% (16/23) · BTTS 57.8% (8/11)
Home
22.0%
32/9 (4.56)
Draw
22.1%
53/15 (4.53)
Away
56.0%
11/14 (1.79)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Huddersfield Town v Leicester City
λ 1.71 · μ 1.28 · over 2.5 57.6% (14/19) · BTTS 59.3% (11/16)
Home
47.5%
21/19 (2.10)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
28.8%
52/21 (3.48)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon
λ 1.35 · μ 1.30 · over 2.5 49.3% (25/24) · BTTS 53.8% (6/7)
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
Draw
26.1%
65/23 (3.83)
Away
35.8%
43/24 (2.79)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons
λ 1.55 · μ 1.48 · over 2.5 58.4% (17/24) · BTTS 60.9% (9/14)
Home
39.5%
26/17 (2.53)
Draw
24.1%
22/7 (4.14)
Away
36.4%
7/4 (2.75)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Notts County v Stevenage
λ 1.39 · μ 1.01 · over 2.5 43.1% (29/22) · BTTS 47.8% (12/11)
Home
45.5%
6/5 (2.20)
Draw
27.0%
62/23 (3.70)
Away
27.5%
37/14 (3.64)
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers
λ 1.29 · μ 1.36 · over 2.5 49.4% (25/24) · BTTS 53.9% (6/7)
Home
35.5%
20/11 (2.82)
Draw
26.1%
17/6 (3.83)
Away
38.4%
8/5 (2.60)