League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Burton Albion
15th on points, with 17. 22nd on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 13.71 xG for, 23.01 against, goal difference -3.
- Season xGD
- -9.30
- GF minus xG
- +4.29
- Last 10 xGD
- -6.87
- xG per match
- 0.98
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.86 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.05. Away attack 0.70 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.08.
Next in the eight-day window: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 54.9% (14/17), draw 22.6% (65/19), away 22.5% (69/20). λ 1.86, μ 1.11. That is a method. It is not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Wycombe Wanderers | 0-2 | 0.66 | 1.39 | -0.66 |
| 24 Oct | H | Leyton Orient | 2-1 | 1.61 | 0.91 | +0.39 |
| 20 Oct | H | Bradford City | 0-0 | 1.76 | 1.49 | -1.76 |
| 17 Oct | A | Peterborough United | 2-2 | 1.07 | 3.15 | +0.93 |
| 10 Oct | A | Doncaster Rovers | 0-1 | 1.07 | 0.70 | -1.07 |
| 3 Oct | H | Huddersfield Town | 1-3 | 0.17 | 3.23 | +0.83 |
| 26 Sept | A | Plymouth Argyle | 1-0 | 0.99 | 2.52 | +0.01 |
| 19 Sept | H | Mansfield Town | 2-2 | 0.85 | 1.87 | +1.15 |
| 12 Sept | A | Oxford United | 0-3 | 0.47 | 1.21 | -0.47 |
| 5 Sept | H | Cambridge United | 2-2 | 2.23 | 1.28 | -0.23 |
| 2 Sept | H | AFC Wimbledon | 4-1 | 0.92 | 1.34 | +3.08 |
| 29 Aug | A | Notts County | 1-2 | 0.16 | 2.08 | +0.84 |
| 22 Aug | A | Leicester City | 2-1 | 0.81 | 1.31 | +1.19 |
| 15 Aug | H | Stevenage | 1-1 | 0.94 | 0.53 | +0.06 |