League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Oxford United
3rd on points, with 26. 13th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 19.57 xG for, 20.57 against, goal difference +11.
- Season xGD
- -1.00
- GF minus xG
- +2.43
- Last 10 xGD
- +1.49
- xG per match
- 1.51
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.94 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.99. Away attack 1.09 from 6 away matches. Away defence 1.10.
Next in the eight-day window: Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 35.5% (20/11), draw 26.1% (17/6), away 38.4% (8/5). λ 1.29, μ 1.36. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Regression flags
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 9.6 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
League matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF−xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov | H | Reading | 2-0 | 0.57 | 1.61 | +1.43 |
| 31 Oct | A | Barnsley | 1-1 | 2.79 | 0.89 | -1.79 |
| 27 Oct | H | Stockport County | 1-0 | 2.16 | 2.53 | -1.16 |
| 24 Oct | H | Bradford City | 0-0 | 1.48 | 1.25 | -1.48 |
| 20 Oct | H | Wigan Athletic | 2-1 | 1.85 | 0.25 | +0.15 |
| 15 Oct | A | Mansfield Town | 1-1 | 0.74 | 3.77 | +0.26 |
| 10 Oct | A | Notts County | 2-1 | 1.35 | 0.56 | +0.65 |
| 19 Sept | H | Cambridge United | 1-1 | 0.77 | 1.36 | +0.23 |
| 12 Sept | H | Burton Albion | 3-0 | 1.21 | 0.47 | +1.79 |
| 5 Sept | A | Leicester City | 4-0 | 2.25 | 0.99 | +1.75 |
| 1 Sept | A | Huddersfield Town | 1-3 | 1.21 | 3.57 | -0.21 |
| 22 Aug | A | Stevenage | 2-1 | 1.36 | 1.12 | +0.64 |
| 15 Aug | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 2-2 | 1.83 | 2.20 | +0.17 |